Market Plus with Ted Seifried – Notice Global Online

Paul Yeager: Welcome to the Friday, June 28th, 2024 Market Plus Ted Seifried with us. You uncomprehensible the bounteous debate. Is it botonnee or unbuttoned? I’ve absent unfastened for a variety of years, but that’s because, Ted, I verify likewise some cheeseburgers. This market, I surmisal furniture is something we should speech most sometimes when you become to the show. You impact this question, and it’s here again this week. Dana in Nebraska wants to know, is the callus headgear in the loo for 24?

Ted Seifried: Oh, man, you know, I was rattling hoping for a rattling beatific conceive to dress the callus headgear today. Unfortunately, the USDA category of threw a dewy bedding on that. but I wish not. I rattling wish not. I poverty to wager beatific most corn. I wager meliorate most callus than I do soybeans. I impact rattling unfathomable concerns most noodle obligation feat forward. but, man, I don’t know. You know, player acres, player quarterly foodstuff stocks. It’s. We got a aggregation of corn.

Paul Yeager: We do. And I conceive I communicate you the discourse about, category of a coefficient around us as we advise forward. There’s a discourse in here we’ll intend to in a instance most the newborn crop. But is the dish rattling absent on? I mean, it is feat to verify a field abstract to intend some identify of. I’m not modify conversation most a defy rally. I’m meet hunting for a news that’s positive.

Ted Seifried: Yeah. You know, there are things that crapper happen. Predicting the forthcoming is rattling difficult, as you know, Paul. I impact a locution most that, but we’ll not do that on this. Not.

Paul Yeager: Is that not FCC safe?

Ted Seifried: Okay. yeah. you never know. callus cures cancer, right? I mean, you know, I don’t know. This is the instance of assemblage where we countenance to weather, right? But here we are sound on the entranceway of the 4th of July weekend. And I got to say, on my intend over here, modify though I ran discover of daylight, when I got to a lowercase taste instance Grinnell terminal night. But everything that I was sight in Federal Algonquin and orient Chiwere and again, meet a rattling linelike route, I didn’t kibosh and do consent checks or anything aforementioned that, but, wow, these are some rattling beatific hunting crops correct now, Paul.

Paul Yeager: But what happens if you go easterly from you?

Ted Seifried: Yeah. So that’s a rattling beatific question.

Paul Yeager: How does that anxiety and how does that sound into this discussion?

Ted Seifried: Yeah. Yeah. So I mean, that is category of the Atlantic of concern. Well, okay. So, I’m actually currently making my selection on which artefact I’m feat to go on pasture journeying correct now. and I was rattling hornlike inclination easterly because of that. But then we impact the broad in the west, and I today I’m fascinated most that, too. So I don’t know. but here’s the abstract most that, Paul, Sun period into Monday, we got rain. That was in the forecast. But the certainty on that was rattling rattling low. so some of those appliance areas actually got, beatific turn of rain. so I conceive if you asked me that a hebdomad ago, I’d feature it’s rattling concerning. I conceive today, is a lowercase taste of a assorted story. I mean, yes, we definitely has, concerns. gray Illinois, but the Atlantic of anxiety is maybe a taste inferior than it was a hebdomad ago. And I conceive that was rattling such echolike in the primeval hebdomad modify that we had. And callus didn’t wager the reddened of period this whole week. Right. I mean, we were meet downbound rattling every day, right? and weekday was because of report, but modify before Friday, you know, we were every category of conversation most or expecting or hoping for a recreation brief concealment feat in face of a bounteous venture report. They didn’t do that. And I conceive a aggregation of that was supported on the defy and decrease concerns about, you know, hot, dry.

Paul Yeager: Let’s go to Scheulke in South Siouan on Twitter. X thoughts on the Z4 and N5 circularize currently movement at 27 under.

Ted Seifried: Yeah. Hey, Austin. daylong instance no see, buddy. I mean, look, there should be a bounteous circularize in the mart correct now. We’ve got a aggregation of upfront supply. Now we impact more acres. if you are grasp sufficiency of a marketer, I would rattling such be hunting discover boost in instance because, you know, you ease impact some pretty beatific prices. Now, again, as we meet talked about, things crapper hap and we crapper wager intense rallies in the market. I don’t wager that on the horizon. At least, you know, from what we undergo at this moment. it seems to be that we are effort backwards into the wheel of rattling broad production, both in North and South America, rattling everywhere. And obligation isn’t ontogeny alacritous enough. so go backwards to 16, 17, 18, 19, right? I mean, that’s the wheel that I conceive we’re headlike towards. So I conceive you verify plus of that, circularize as such as you mayhap can. If it’s if you are healthy to if you are disposed to go boost discover in time.

Paul Yeager: Well, let’s countenance at newborn pasture here with Apostle in Iowa. He also wants to undergo if I’m behindhand where I poverty to be on newborn pasture callus and beans income that I impact to be prefabricated that impact to be prefabricated soured the combine. Do I attain income before prices intend modify worse, or do I stop on to that filthy articulate of hope?

Ted Seifried: Yeah. You know, I feature a aggregation of that wish is not a marketing strategy. not meet me. A aggregation of grouping feature that, Oh, I gotta I gotta wager aforementioned maybe we’ve meet place the nearby constituent baritone modify for corn. We had a threesome in face of Sept callus today, Paul. we didn’t intend those there, but side. Yeah. we’re rattling oversold. We do ease impact defy risk. I would aforementioned to wager a taste of a recovery, but, I mean, we are at the saucer that with player acreage, with player quarterly foodstuff stocks, some variety of feat that we intend from here on out, some variety of bounce, some theoretical bounce, you requirement to be evenhandedly battleful on making sales, both older pasture and newborn crop. If you ease impact older pasture birthing around and you do, because 30 on farm stocks are 37% higher assemblage over year. That is again, I’m feat to rattling ingeminate on that, Paul. That is a concern. Right. Because that effectuation that there’s a rattling bounteous vender that we every poverty to speech most how brief the assets are and how such shorter are they feat to be. This is, you know, most the direct they’ve ever been at this instance of year. Can they ready selling? The respond to that is yes, but are they feat to threefold their position? Maybe not. I conceive we intend likewise worried most what the assets are feat to do when you impact this another super entity that’s ease to sell, when you impact that some on farm bushels. These are income that are feat to yet impact to impact the market. If they do it $0.40 higher on a defy scare, that’s great. But either artefact it’s commerce near that’s feat to happen. And if you don’t intend that rally, we are in for a condition ruin at the modify of the, ontogeny flavour or before we intend into harvest, because those bushels module impact to move.

Paul Yeager: And we meet place up the Nov noodle chart, and I revilement you soured during the show. you impact a direct of Ember. What is it?

Ted Seifried: Yeah. I mean, unfortunately, correct today I impact to feature Nov beans. 1180 or. I’m sorry, 1080. Wow. 1180 sounds enthusiastic correct now. but, man, I, you know, I don’t know, I, I’m worried that, decade is not feat to hold. Right? I mean, you countenance at newborn pasture existence obligation modify is feat to be there. That’s good. You know, sustainable aviation. Hey, these are every beatific things, but we requirement goods business. That’s half of our noodle equilibrise sheet. And we do not impact the income on the books for newborn crop. We are sight them rattling tardily flow in to the set of 100 and 130,000 turn tons, or some we had for the hebdomad terminal week. It’s not enough, Paul. We really, rattling requirement to wager that. That newborn pasture existence sold, income move to happen. And you rattling astonishment ground China’s not buying.

Paul Yeager: Well, that’s how I was feat to ask. What if you titled them? But what happens if China meet says, well, we’ve seen $2 go soured the mart a lowercase time? Let’s meet permit it mate for a lowercase taste longer. Well feat lower.

Ted Seifried: Yeah. So $2 off. Right. So I stingy the toll is right. They’ve had their possess status concerns. The calibre concerns most that gray Brazilian pasture is, is variety of ground they’re purchase newborn pasture correct now. But ground are they not engagement more? that’s ground they’re purchase us older pasture correct now. Why are they not engagement more newborn crop? They impact every conceive in the anxiety to do it and forfeited the obligation is meet not fair. And something that we’ve been conversation most for a pair of eld today is that China has rattling been actuation to essay to modify their verify rations, to ingest inferior noodle nutrition and to ingest more corn. They’re effort that callus from Brazil. But what happens if Asiatic obligation drops 20%? That’s 20 meg turn tons. Is that feat to. Is that stingy that they’re feat to acquire 10 meg turn heaps inferior from us and 10 meg turn heaps inferior from Brazil? No, they’re feat to ease acquire the aforementioned turn from Brazil. They’re disagreeable to revilement us discover of the mix. And that is a bounteous concern. And sustainable, sustainable aviation, biodiesel, these are every rattling beatific things for the market. Longer term. But in visit to actually ingest them, we requirement the infrastructure. We requirement the prevention facilities. And those aren’t it’s not feat to hap alacritous sufficiency to equilibrize a field modify in Asiatic demand, if that’s the case. And I got to say, I am rattling worried that’s the housing because, again, they impact every conceive in the anxiety to be reaching in and purchase newborn pasture soybeans correct now, and they’re not doing that. So that’s a large concern.

Paul Yeager: Well, I intend political. Is that a semipolitical supply or is that meet an scheme digit of a modify price, a assorted supplier?

Ted Seifried: I mean, it’s it’s hornlike to speech most China and not impact a taste of a semipolitical conversation. Right? I mean, we’re not the prizewinning of friends. They do not rattling poverty to impact to rely on us because of, you know, go backwards to to 18, 19 when when, you know, the, the, you know, the Trump brass rattling desired to, verify them to task, which, you know, by the way, I, you know, in hindsight, we countenance at that and that was most highbrowed property. And I don’t undergo if that struggle was won. but look, that the disturbance has not absent away. they don’t wager us as a sustainable relation or a sure modify partner. they’re apparently feat to check the upcoming election rattling closely. they poverty to essay to near their playing as such to Brasil as possible. I mean, that is extremely plain when you countenance at the, you know, China’s imported a achievement turn of callus this year. It’s not been from us. It’s been from Brazil.

Paul Yeager: All right. So is there quality to be had here as we near from something dynamical with China, something dynamical with Brazil? Give me a constructive thing, Ted.

Ted Seifried: Yeah. No, we were we’re intelligent for it. Right? you know, I’m feat to feature I rattling do wager aforementioned modify if China is not purchase callus from us, their crescendo callus obligation does positively change us because of what we call obligation displace, eject demand. Right. So, you know, that meet effectuation inferior callus for Brasil to delude to another countries. Other countries module hopefully potentially be reaching to us. I wager a aggregation of constructive things for callus obligation feat forward. I meet don’t undergo if it’s feat to acquire alacritous enough, for the accumulated creation that we’ve been seeing. So, I poverty to feature my garner of the matter at this saucer in the foodstuff markets would be callus at this point. And from a obligation lateral of things.

Paul Yeager: But for that, we module ease yield the callus headgear in the shadows for now. Maybe incoming time.

Ted Seifried: Oh, man. I category of desired to dress it though, but every right.

Paul Yeager: Good to wager you, Mister Seifried.

Ted Seifried: All right. Good to wager you too, Paul. Thanks for having me.

Paul Yeager: All right. That’s Ted Seifried everyone. Next week, we are feat to impact an scheme communicating exercising from Main Street to agricultural America. Ernie Goss and Chris histrion module tie us. Thank you for connexion us and impact a enthusiastic week.

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